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Forex - EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Flows: ECB expected to stay on hold

Reuters: The euro zone economy is widely expected to need more stimulus from the European Central Bank, but it may not come at the bank's policy meeting on Thursday. Growth and inflation remain anemic, but the ECB has already exhausted much of its firepower, so ECB President Mario Draghi has to pick his time and probably has enough arguments to wait a bit longer. Nonetheless, it is probably just a matter of months before the ECB eases policy further, acknowledging that inflation just isn't moving higher, despite free credit to banks, record low interest rates and money printing worth 1.2 trillion euros (US$1.35 trillion) in the past year and a half.

Focus of the day is on the ECB meeting, but apart from forward guidance, we do not expect the central bank to do much, though they could yet address the problem of scarcity. EURUSD seen within 1.1233 -58 so far, and although a slight bid tone is currently seen, the reason is due more to USD weakness rather than EUR strength, even if EURGBP was boosted due to BoE Carney comments on more possible rate cuts. Expect 1.1270-80 to comfortably contain any further up moves ahead of the ECB meeting.

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